2010 AggPro Weights

For those of you playing at home, your AggPro weights for 2010 are as follows:

Bill James = .4266

CHONE = 0.0

Marcel = .2851

PECOTA = .2833

ZiPS = 0.0

To review, in 2009 the weights were:

Bill James = .37

CHONE = 0.0

Marcel = .35

PECOTA = .28

ZiPS = 0.0

And in 2008 the weights were:

Bill James = .56

CHONE = 0.0

Marcel = .15

PECOTA = .29

ZiPS = 0.0

We adapted a polynomial time matrix least-squares minimization algorithm to solve the AggPro problem this year instead of simply performing a brute force search across the search space. The new algorithm has allowed for more precise weight sets (4 digits vs. 2 digits) and a two order of magnitude improvement in speed (seconds vs. hours).

We are experimenting with finer grained weight sets this year. For example, instead of only allowing one weight for all the categories what if we allowed a separate weight set for each category? for each player? for each category for each player? Our instinct is that the most accurate results will come from allowing each system to have a separate weight set for each category for the upcoming year but at this point we don't have any empirical evidence to support it. Results will be posted here as they come in.