Bill James = .4266
CHONE = 0.0
Marcel = .2851
PECOTA = .2833
ZiPS = 0.0To review, in 2009 the weights were:
Bill James = .37
CHONE = 0.0
Marcel = .35
PECOTA = .28
ZiPS = 0.0And in 2008 the weights were:
Bill James = .56
CHONE = 0.0
Marcel = .15
PECOTA = .29
ZiPS = 0.0We adapted a polynomial time matrix least-squares minimization algorithm to solve the AggPro problem this year instead of simply performing a brute force search across the search space. The new algorithm has allowed for more precise weight sets (4 digits vs. 2 digits) and a two order of magnitude improvement in speed (seconds vs. hours).
We are experimenting with finer grained weight sets this year. For example, instead of only allowing one weight for all the categories what if we allowed a separate weight set for each category? for each player? for each category for each player? Our instinct is that the most accurate results will come from allowing each system to have a separate weight set for each category for the upcoming year but at this point we don't have any empirical evidence to support it. Results will be posted here as they come in.
Do you have any idea as to the approximate date of the release? Will all player projections be released? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, we can't release the AggPro projections due to possible legal trouble. Its straight forward to reverse engineer the Pecota and Bill James projections (which cost $) from the AggPro projections. If you are still interested and can provide some type of evidence you have paid for Bill James and Pecota I'd be happy to pass along the AggPro projections.
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